I think Arya will die this season

Just a number of little things that point me to that.

In the promos, there are the references to the “lone wolf,” and I believe she makes one during her speech as Walder.

I can’t see Cersei dying quite yet. Or with Arya’s involvement. Cersei’s fate is tied to the prophecy and the little brother part of it. I know, there are workarounds that people come up with, such as someone else’s little brother, or it being indirectly, or tied to Cleganebowl, whatever. And these are certainly possibilities. We’ll see. But I don’t think they’ll get that twisty with it. I think the people who came up with those theories are mostly expecting to be surprised, and so are of course trying to figure out how. Again, maybe, and this show certainly likes and tries to surprise, but I foresee a more literal outcome on this one.

Basically, Cersei’s plot armor is thicker than Arya’s. Arya has her own to-do/kill list, sure. But, pretty much everyone on it has either been killed already or sort of phased out. She mostly seems intent on Cersei and The Mountain. Probably Melisandre if she bumps into her. Arya has definitely become cunning, but somehow I just don’t see her getting the better of any of them, except perhaps Melisandre.

Arya isn’t going to go to King’s Landing and come back. She’s not going to see a situation where an attempt would be futile and think “Might as well quit then.” And if she attempts and fails, she’ll likely get caught, and be killed. Yes, she’s escaped from King’s Landing once, so it seems she could theoretically manage again, but I think it would draw a better parallel for her to not escape. The first time it was allowed, she was innocent, hadn’t put herself in the situation. This time, she is literally running at it, so it’s her choice, and that will do her in. Sort of like the bad decisions Sansa is trying to caution Jon against.

So, ignoring Melisandre, Cersei and The Mountain are the two primaries left on her list. Cersei’s fate seems sealed, but it does not require Arya to be a part of it. If Cleganebowl is truth, which is generally accepted, his storyline does not require Arya either. Again, plot armor. Arya requires Arya’s list to be finished, the show doesn’t. And it would be quite the surprise to see her fail when so close.

Plus, it looks like Nymeria is finally returning. Since they limit their use of the Dire-wolves, we can expect her return to be short-lived and of note, which would be fitting if Arya dies.

I know we all want a full Stark reunion, and for Arya to finish her list, but we know the show doesn’t always give us what we want, and they’ll be excited to kill more fan favorites now. And Arya doesn’t seem bent on going home. Presumably that’s her long plan, but not really of a concern to her.

And I know it might seem like too soon to kill her, but it really isn’t. I just did the math, even if she dies in 7x02, she’ll have made it 85% of the way through the series, which is definitely acceptable for a main fan favorite character, especially if you want the death to be impactful on the rest of the run. Plus, I think most of us are expecting a small amount of characters to survive the run, and I don’t see the writers being like, “Yeah sure let’s just have them all die en masse,” that’d be unfulfilling.