Box 0ffice predictions?


I just realised there will be NO MCU movie in 2024 after the delay of this movie. I guess Deadpool is supposed to be MCU, but is it going to be related? Probably a post credit scene with Deadpool going through a portal to the MCU.
They were supposed to be releasing 3 a year. That went down to zero.
This is the next MCU coming out, after an utterly disastrous year of releases. Will Captain America in the title, without the actual Captain America entice people back? I can't see it. Will probably still do better that The Marvels though. Athony Mackie is well liked, and if the trailer looks good, it might still do OK.

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The box office for a film with a 2025 release date is impossible to predict at this point. There has been a staggering drop-off in cinema-going since Covid that will likely become the new normal. People simply aren't going to the movies anymore. Two years of being locked down at home, streaming everything, has created an entirely new mindset in people. This combined with studios releasing films on streaming platforms either simultaneously with their theatrical release, or very soon after, has created an "I'll wait and see it on streaming" mentality in audiences.

When people are given the opportunity to be stupider and lazier, they will always jump at the chance, no matter how much worse the outcome is for them. We've seen that with nearly everything in recent years-- food, travel, news, games-- and it seems the movies are next.

The current attitude is to go see the one or two hyped-up "event" pictures each year, and stream the rest. This year it was Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Mario Bros. Who knows what it will be next year?

Also, there's a very high likelihood that by the time Brave New World comes out, Disney will have been purchased by Apple, as one stagnating company will try to reverse its fortunes by acquiring another stagnating company. Who knows what direction the MCU will take once that happens.

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Not true all all. When there are movies people want to see, they go to the box office. In 2019 8/10 of the top 10 movies were Disney. Including 3 MCU movies, 2 live action adaptations of beloved animated movies, 2 sequels to beloved animated franchises, and a Star Wars Movie.

Avatar, Top Gun, Barbie, Super Marios all made massive box office.

The real problem is the lack of original movies. Movie studios don't take risks anymore. But there is only so long you can keep bleeding established frnachises dry until people get bored. We need new stuff.

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IT WAS ALL TRUE.

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I don't think that's the case. There has been a massive post-Covid shift in how people consume entertainment. It used to be that when there were movies people wanted to see, they went to the movies to see them. Now there is a preference by most to see them at home. The only thing that gets many people into a cinema now is an event, and that is limited to a couple times a year.

I think the studios are partly to blame for this, as they have been shifting their focus almost entirely to blockbusters over the past decade or so, but the primary factor here is how Covid opened the door for streaming platforms to supplant theater-going.

The long-term is still fuzzy, as streaming services still haven't figured out how to make money at this. How things will end up is anyone's guess, but audiences flocking back to theaters in droves is the unlikeliest of outcomes. Current trends suggest that only 2 or 3 films will manage to create enough buzz each year to become the ones people go out to see.

Also worth pointing out-- of the films you listed as doing well over the past two years, none are the "original movies" you claim people want. They are all sequels or based off of existing properties. Audiences don't care about original, they care about buzz. If social media tells them it's the one to see, they see it.

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my point it, someone had to make Star Wars and Iron Man and Toy Story etc. in the first place. If studios had just get making remakes and sequals back then, then the franchises wouldn't exist in the first place. And people get bored sooner or later.

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That's what I was alluding to when I said the studios are partly to blame. Once they realized that a sequel would nearly always make a big profit, they slowly began to focus on milking franchises for every dollar they could rather than taking a risk on a new film. It began with Star Wars, Rocky, Jaws, Indiana Jones, Superman, and that era of films, and got worse over time.

They simultaneously stopped releasing all the mid-budget dramas aimed at adults, trying instead to knock it out of the park every time with a blockbuster.

Both strategies worked for awhile, but the long-term effect seems to have been that they've trained audiences to only show up for blockbusters, and forgotten how to make and market non-sequel blockbusters. That combined with post-Covid audiences preferring to watch from home has been a likely deathblow for the theater-going experience.

An anecdotal observation: I go to the cinema all the time. When I see new blockbuster films, it's nearly always in a near-empty theater. When I see showings of new less-marketed films, the theater tends to be sold out, or close to it. Recently I watched The Killer, and when I bought my ticket it was literally the last one left. It was nearly the same for The Holdovers, where there were only a few left.

When I see old films, it's always a sellout. I saw a 1920s silent film in a theater that seats 1,270, and it sold out. I was going to buy 2 tickets to see The Long Goodbye on Wednesday night next week, but there was only 1 seat left.

It seems audiences will still turn up for classics, and there are so few mid-budget pictures being made, that when one is released, it brings in a crowd, too, but neither will sustain theaters.

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Those films are sold out because there are limited screenings. If a film is showing 10 times a day, some of those screenings are not going to be sold out.

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That's part of it too, and why I say it isn't enough to sustain theaters. It used to be, when studios made a lot of those sorts of pictures, and put them into wide release, they made money, but audiences have been trained to ignore them, and I don't think it can be reversed.

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Audiences can watch old movies on demand at home any time. You used to have to buy a hard copy of a film to be able to watch it, or wait for it to be on TV with ads and a 4:3 ratio and low resolution. There used to be a massive difference watching a movie at the cinema and at home. Not so much any more.

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That isn't totally the case. As someone who mostly watches older films, I can tell you that it's hard to find many of them. I often end up having to buy a Blu-ray or DVD to watch something.

As for the quality of the experience at home vs. in a theater, it isn't even close. Even the nicest of home theaters, excluding homes that have actual full-size theaters built-in, pale in comparison to actual cinemas. Once you factor in the experience of seeing it in a crowded theater vs. alone, or with a few friends, at home, home viewing becomes at best 10% of the cinema experience.

The proof of this is how re-releases and repertory screenings routinely sell out. People with an appreciation for film understand how much better it is to see something in a theater.

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The gap in the experience between home and cinema is much smaller than it used to be. Even watching on a laptop in HD. Cinema used to be a totally different experience. It's still a bit better, but not that much. I don't agree that there is a big differnence in home cinema and cinema. It's more about the resoution than the size of the screen.
Theater is more of a ritual for me. I just like the ritual of it. It's not about the size of the screen.

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Opening wkend 50m
Domestic total 100m
Oversea 250m
Total = 350m

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I'm sorry I have to say this, but I truly think this is not going to do as well as what we've been accustomed to when it comes to Casting for Captain America and Anthony Mackie just isn't Chris Evans.. I don't know what to make of any of this, but I'm not exactly certain what it's going to take for Disney to realize comic book fatigue and they should take a few years off from this??

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While there is some truth to superhero fatigue, I think it is more about the studios not paying attention to what the fans want. Did most fans want to see a Captain Marvel sequel? Maybe, but not with two other characters roped into it. Did anyone really want to see Ant-Man fight Kang the Conqueror? Seems too much of a mismatch. Focus on things the audience did like, rather than "we need more this" and hope after spending 200 or more million to make one movie that people like it.

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WW Total - 500M.

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