Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $49,505,783 49.6%
+ Foreign: $50,390,584 50.4%
= Worldwide: $99,896,367
This website can also be helpful when trying to keep track of movie grosses:
http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Assassins-Creed#tab=summary
Its breakdown of foreign markets for this movie is very out of date though.
Okay, maybe there is hope after all.
shareOther than Warcraft, VG based movies usually underperform. The key to the RE movie series success is not just a devoted fanbase, but relatively low production costs.
When I'm good, I'm GOOD. When I'm bad, I'm BETTER.
But the fact that Warcraft, Prince of Persia and the Angry Birds movie grossed a lot worldwide means that it is possible to get one that could become a hit (Angry Birds can already be classified as a hit). Also, the Resident Evil movies in total grossed nearly a billion worldwide, so their total gross for the movies combined is also higher, it doesn't just make a larger because of lower production costs and they also make more on DVD sales.
shareIt might cross 300M with China's box office but it won't go anywhere near 400M. If Warcraft didn't get a sequel with a 434M gross, why would AC?
shareIt is not going to cross 300 million with China. The game is not hugely popular there like Warcraft, which also had a partnership with the largest Chinese theatre chain to promote the movie. Besides there are other action oriented movies like XXX and RE are coming down the pike this week and next.
I am having deja vu from the Star Trek Beyond board where people were saying that it was going to make at least $100 million there. This movie is basically done in all markets except for China. They may (strong may) end up with a WW total in the low $200s. The industry rags knew what they were talking about when they said this movie was going to lose about $75-$100 million.
Remember that the last update on box office mojo before the current $98 million foreign gross a week ago only showed a $50 million gross. So that means that the foreign box office nearly doubled the gross in only the last 5 days by adding an additional $48 million to it due to the new territories that it opened in between Wednesday and the weekend. So therefore, the math is actually still there for it to cross the $300 million assuming that that last weekend was not the peak and that it might spike again when it opens in the several remaining large markets. Even if it doesn't, it the amount will still continue accumulate from those place that it just opened in and it could already cross the $200 million mark worldwide by this weekend or get close to it.
shareIt's likely to drop next weekend. It will rise again in February because of China but it won't be a huge hit there like Warcraft was. It will die on the 300-340M range, still a flop.
shareGood point. And AC didn't even have a promotion there. Yeah, maybe it won't even reach 100M there. Warcraft also had a huge boost and then fell like a baby after two, three weeks.
In US I think the film will end on the 55M range, very close to Warcraft. Overseas it won't make 390M though, maybe 250M or so.
Based on the current 148M cume worldwide, let's add 70M from China, more 5M from domestic, 20M from UK, 20M from Russia, 15M from France and a few millions from other territories. The final gross could be 300-340M. That's even below Persia. Still a flop despite the "low" budget announced by Fox.
This movie only has China left as a potential big market and has exhausted all the other markets and has shown little to no staying power. It already came out in the UK two weeks ago. Unless it really blows up in China, it is not getting to even form $150 million to $250 million, especially since the movie will have been leaked (if not already) by the time is shows up in China in the middle of Feb., along with all the bad reviews. I don't even know where they are getting the $300 million from at all. Please stop using Warcraft as an example because it was in a totally different situation in China.
shareThis movie only has China left as a potential big market and has exhausted all the other markets and has shown little to no staying power. It already came out in the UK two weeks ago.
In France it has peaked already: 12-14M only (Warcraft made 14M there). In UK it could gross 15M I guess, it won't have strong legs during awards season and with awful reviews. In Spain and Germany same thing, probably end its run on the 14M range. Other territories will be below that so it will barely reach 200M worldwide, maybe not even that. In domestic the film is already dead.
AC basically needs a massive performance in China, Warcraft's wise. Not happening. I've changed my mind: IF it reaches 300M it will be a miracle already.
In France it has peaked already: 12-14M only (Warcraft made 14M there). In UK it could gross 15M I guess, it won't have strong legs during awards season and with awful reviews. In Spain and Germany same thing, probably end its run on the 14M range. Other territories will be below that so it will barely reach 200M worldwide, maybe not even that. In domestic the film is already dead.
AC basically needs a massive performance in China, Warcraft's wise. Not happening. I've changed my mind: IF it reaches 300M it will be a miracle already.
Yes but in France it looks leggier than Warcraft. Remember that Warcraft had the same opening there but by it's third week, it only made $9 million, while the figures on Box Office Mojo for Assassin's Creed in France is currently in the third week but it currently grossed nearly $13 million, so maybe it could overtake Warcraft there. In the UK, it will likely drop hard over the second week but I don't know by how much yet. In fact, at the moment it looks leggier than Warcraft in most countries, including domestically where it's already overtaken Warcraft's gross, (though it won't make much more because it's already flatlined). Warcraft made $165 million worldwide outside of both the US and China, so it looks to me like this could make a bit more.
shareA. Creed is already dying in France, it won't gross a significant amount of money anymore. If it surpasses Warcraft it will be little.
If the film grosses 165M overseas or even a few more, 180M, that's still awful. Add that to 55M in domestic and Chima (where it will never gross 220M, maybe not even 100M) and it's a 300M film tops. No sequel IMO.
Okay, every week it'll gross a little less because it was front loaded when it opened, so it's been "dying" since it opened. What I was talking about is mathematically by how much the slope of the curve decreases from week to week or daily because that will determine how much it will gross overall. Let me show you a comparison chart so that you can see what I mean (though this one is for the domestic chart, not for France):
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Assassins-Creed/Warcraft
The blue graph is for Assassin's Creed and the red one is for Warcraft. As you can see, the blue line started at a lower number but the slope changed at a slower rate, leading to the blue graph eventually intersecting the red after about 12 days, so it will end it's run at a higher gross. I believe that I'm seeing the same kind of pattern when I look at the weekend grosses for France on the Box Office Mojo site:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&country=FR&id=assassinscreed.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&country=FR&id=warcraft.htm
Check the numbers for both at week 3.
Ok but what's your point? I am just saying that AC will flop and it won't get any closer to Warcraft's gross.
shareIt mostly has to with my prediction of how much it will gross. As for flopping, I've got no idea how much it needs to make to break even, I thought it would need to get at least $250 million to cover the production budget but that's not accounting for marketing costs. It won't get close to Warcraft's gross of $433 million because the game is not as popular in China but I think it might perform a little better than Warcraft in territories outside of both the US and China. So I guessed that the worldwide gross might be somewhere between the mid 200 million range and the low 300 million range.
shareThere are quite a few articles on the internet about the subject. Making its budget doesn't mean it's a successful film by any means, especially when it comes to blockbusters. The film's revenue go to theaters, distributors, producers, actors, etc, many people are involved. There's also promotion money, which was Fox's. The film was released everywhere, they did TV spots, posters, ads all over the internet, outdoors and magazines, screenings and press conferences...they spent at least 70M with A. Creed.
Because of that, the film would need at least 400M to be considered decent. Warcraft isn't getting a sequel and it grossed 434M just so you can have an idea. A similar thing happened to T5 in 2015. With Warcraft, I remember reports saying they spent 270M with budget and promotion so it would have needed more than 500M to break even.
So 200-300M is an awful result for AC. Really awful. That's below Prince of Persia, considered a huge failure (and it grossed 130M more than is budget).
I've asked this before and I'll ask it it again, if they needed to cover the promotion and marketing as well, then why the hell does anyone even consider spending so much on bloody marketing when there is no video game movie history that have ever made it past $500 million worldwide. Do movie studios like playing Russian Roulette with their budgets?
Also, with Warcraft, they only made a deficit $15 million total, according to Hollywood Reporter, so it's perfectly possible to make up the the difference with DVD and Blu-Ray sales and/or streaming and TV rights.
Studios can be extremely stupid when it comes to money. History has taught us about it many times.
Warcraft is a flop. But they might do a Chinese sequel because of the success in China.
Looks like it's trending towards my initial guess of 250-300. Added 50m back to back weeks internationally.
shareAccording to the traditional formula, espoused by many, of 2x production budget + 50% of production budget for advertising, the cost needed for break even would be 312.5 million. It is starting to look like this movie will do better in Europe than Warcraft did, although it will be impossible for it to rival Warcraft's China result.
However, since the gaming industry is more important and lucrative to Ubisoft than movies can possibly be, the movie's overall effect on the Assassin's Creed game franchise will be important to them in determining whether they will want to go with a sequel. Although people talk about the decline of home video, they often do not mention the fact that the growth of the video game market is part of the reason for that.
True. There are VGs today that are so intense, dramatic, and with such hyper real graphics, it's like a movie you can participate in instead of just being a passive observer.
When I'm good, I'm GOOD. When I'm bad, I'm BETTER.