MovieChat Forums > Assassin's Creed (2016) Discussion > Will China save the day yet again?

Will China save the day yet again?

posted 8 years ago by jeff8073x
12 replies | jump to latest

The movie might only finish with around 60M in the domestic box office, but internationally it's off to a pretty solid start with multiple countries left. I wouldn't be surprised if Germany/France being close to the domestic gross. That being said, I think 60M domestic and 200M international is likely - assuming maybe 60M for China. So a sequel is still possible if they can leverage some of what they used before. Maybe reel it in to a 100-125M budget including marketing. Smartest thing would be if they release a game in March 2017 to then release the next one holiday 2018 along with a new movie - or perhaps a January/March release date for the movie makes more sense. Launching right after Rogue one was not exactly a bright idea.

[–] DrNarud 8 years ago

I don't know. I was surprised that when Box Office Mojo updated the figures for the foreign box office yesterday, it only added another $6 million in total. I was surprised by that because it was supposed to of opened in 22 new territories this past week. Unless of course, they didn't all make their box office figures available yet. Also, it's only opening in China in February but won't gross a lot in China, actually. The game is not as popular in China as Warcraft was.

[–] byzantiumthrace 8 years ago

Good points and post. Some scenarios which were presented early on were unrealistically negative since they assumed gross revenue would grind to a halt everywhere, propose maximum case expenses, and do not take into account things like future dvd/bluray sales. It is possible that the movie will not break even, but there is a limit as to how deeply in the red it can physically end up being. I agree that the China results will be important in determining which side the balance ends up being tipped towards.

I am not sure whether Box Office Mojo's Assassin's Creed total foreign numbers are up to date or not. For the individual countries, it still usually shows the data as of January 1st. The numbers for Ukraine and the UAE are exactly the same. This happened after Ukraine was added and the UAE tweaked. One of them must be off.

According to Box Office Mojo's data, Warcraft grossed $165,470,803 outside of the U.S. and China. Angry Birds reportedly grossed $75,872,971 in China.

[–] DrNarud 8 years ago

I am not sure whether Box Office Mojo's Assassin's Creed total foreign numbers are up to date or not. For the individual countries, it still usually shows the data as of January 1st. The numbers for Ukraine and the UAE are exactly the same. This happened after Ukraine was added and the UAE tweaked. One of them must be off.

Oh, I didn't notice that before. I just noticed now that it says that the displayed foreign gross is as of 3 January. So, that means that it doesn't yet count the figures from another 17 territories that opened this week, it's not up to date.

[–] kamikam 8 years ago

Why are you so desperate to make this movie look like it is not the flop it is? This movie make about what Warcraft made in the US (around $50 million --give or take). Warcraft and Angry Birds (also a kids movie) are hugely popular in China and they came out in the summertime there, which makes a huge difference. That does not apply to AC in this situation. Warcraft had a partnership with the theaters in China and was able to have huge hype and control over the theaters. And it is not as if WOM has overcome the bad reviews.

You can really tell when a person is desperate when they start talking about the dying DVD market. Same kind of talk when Ghostbusters flopped last year.

[–] byzantiumthrace 8 years ago

The post was not about alleged desperation or about flop status. It is about questioning whether the scenarios predicting it ending up with a $100,000,000 loss are based a reasonable interpretation of the data or whether they reflect the desires of those making such predictions. It is one thing to predict a loss, another to predict unrealistically extreme scenarios out of hidden motives.

[–] DrNarud 8 years ago

Yoo-hoo, the foreign box office gross has now been updated to state that it grossed $98,052,808 in foreign territories this past week, bringing it's worldwide total to $147,558,591, which is much closer to what I expected it to gross this past week:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=assassinscreed.htm

So, I guess I'm sticking to my original estimate which that troll tried to mock me for, since it's right on track to get there:

I'm well aware that Assassin's Creed is not going to do as well as Warcraft in China because the game is not as popular there. But I'd guess that it might gross as much as $250 - $350 million globally when all is said and done but we'll have to wait and see.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2094766/board/thread/264568159?d=264569197#264569197

Perhaps I should post more on that "Box Office" board on IMDb.

[–] Alondro 8 years ago

So the gross has only just managed to equal the production budget...

Which still means the NET income has a loss in the tens of millions.

This is NOT a success. There is no reason to continue this franchise.

[–] DrNarud 8 years ago

Dude, you do know that it grossed that because it just opened in a lot of countries, right? This is not the final gross. It might not of been a huge hit in the US but it at least managed to more than double the opening weekend gross domestically. So therefore, if it continues that pattern globally, that foreign gross should end up at least double that figure in 2 weeks time and by this weekend, the worldwide gross should already be over $200 million.

I think you're the one not interpreting the data correctly, somehow assuming that the movie opens everywhere in the world on the same day.

[–] AllGot 8 years ago

According to liar Fox, AC cost 125M to MAKE, not make AND promote. Ubisoft and many other articles claimed a much higher budget before promotion started, which is the real one. AC cost at least 150M to be made.

Even considering the 125M budget, Fox spent 60-80 with marketing so the film would have to cross the 400M to not be considered a huge flop. So no, it will NOT have a sequel with a 260M gross worldwide, in what world do you live in? LOL

[–] dalbrech 8 years ago

Apparently nobody covering the movie industry takes the 125 Million figure seriously. Most sources are giving the final price tag for the film...not including marketing.....as 200 Million.

[–] AllGot 8 years ago

I watched the film and I wouldn't say it cost 200M but it's definitely not far from it like 125m. And Ubisoft said this itself!

Cotillard also gave an interview to Quotidien last December, in Paris, and the presenter mentioned the budget being 160M and promotion 125M. Warcraft cost 110M to promote and it didn't have many screenings and press conferences like A. Creed. IMO, the film had a total cost of 250M or so. It makes no sense to make a sequel with a gross below 400M.

[–] DrNarud 8 years ago

I doubt it. Anyone who ever thought that it would cross the $400 million mark is a complete and utter idiot, so if that were true then they should fire whoever it was who decided to spend so much money on it.