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'Assassins Creed' vs 'Passengers' (and both vs 'Rogue One'):


I just realised both 'Passengers' and 'Assassin's Creed' open on the 21. December - only 1 week after Star Wars 7.5 (or 0.5) aka 'Rogue One'.

3 huge PG-13 action/adventure movies all battling for the same demographic over X-mas: will this result in a slaughter at the box office or will it be a feast for everyone? Do the 2 non-Star Wars releases even stand a chance? If so, which one of the two do you think is more likely to triumph over the other?

'Assassin's Creed' is based on a very popular game and has two hugely respected actors in lead roles with Michael Fassbender and Oscar winner Marion Cotillard, though it could be argued that both have not enough star power (yet) to be big box office draws. The film's budget is reported to be close to 200 million, which means it will have to do very good business to become profitable.

'Passengers' is based on an original script by Jon Spaihts - but the film comes with two of the biggest stars Hollywood has to offer right now: Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. At 120 million it is a bit more modestly budgeted than 'Assassin's Creed', but it will also have to make a lot of money to be considered a success.

How do you assess those films' respective prospects at the box office?

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Rogue One and Assassin's Creed will do well, Passengers will flop. Simply because the first two feels and seems close to the audience, they are based on already huge hits in movie and gaming words respectively. Passengers just looks aloof right now. Yes, there are two huge stars on the lead roles, but their star power is widely overrated. Pratt does not have a blockbuster which was believably pulled by himself. It was Jurassic Park and Marvel's brands which gave his movies their money, not him. He is just good-looking guy who can be suitable for the lead role in high-budget movies, but he is not a box-office draw like DiCaprio or A-list actors like him. Lawrence... pff, she had her time in Hollywood, that's for sure, but the fact that they use her as a gag for everything does not mean anything. She just has good agents. She doesn't even have a film in her career which grossed more than $900 million!

So, yeah, Rogue One and Assassins will rule this X-Mas. Brands rules.

Nolan, I love you forever!

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Pratt does not have a blockbuster which was believably pulled by himself
That is very true. But I do have my doubts about 'Assassin's Creed's box office prospects; so far, the trailer hasn't exactly generated much hype (at least as far as I perceived it). Plus States-side, adaptations of video games rarely do well. On the other hand, we haven't seen anything of 'Passengers' at all which could be a bad sign (it's apparently undergoing reshoots right now).

I believe it will come down to 3 things:

1. The quality of 'Rogue One'; the film's apparently had a troubled post production and extensive reshoots. If it gets weak reviews, the two later releases could profit the following weekend.

2. Whichever of the two gets the better marketing campaign will likely win, even regardless of the quality.

3. If both are being marketed equally well (or bad), the reviews will probably decide which film gets the edge over the other.

Anyway, if 'Rogue One' gets rave reviews, I believe both films will drown.

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Thanks to the Kanye song, the trailer pretty much did it, huh. But, if seriously, thanks to Jimmy Kimmel Live, the trailer now has more than 16 million views and more than 200 000 likes. I've seen people keep posting about it on Twitter even now, after 4 months from its premiere. I think it's pretty descent.

And I pretty much agree with your algorithm. Yes, I think that things will go this way. I won't make assumptions about the quality of Rogue One. I think no one can really predict it now, in course of the last events.

Honestly, when Assassin's Creed release date was announced, I was caught in a weak moment. I expected Rogue One more than The Force Awakens, because of its actors and, mainly, director Gareth Edwards, and the tone he chose for this film (realistic). And I was wishing this movie a great luck in box-office. But since Assassins came, I started to doubt what film I want to win this, um, fight. Of course Rogue One will gross more, but I need a film to vote for. Now, I guess, it's Assassin's Creed, though. I don't like this news about the re-shoots, reportedly, made by other director (who, obviously, is Disney's puppet).

Nolan, I love you forever!

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Yep, same here, was really looking forward to 'Rogue One' for the same reasons you mentioned, but everything I heard about how and why the reshoots came about and that another director shot the new footage and is now supervising the edit didn't do much for my enthusiasm to say the least. 'Assassin's Creed' has a lot going for it on the page (great director, great cast, great concept) but the moment I heard they were going to make this for 200 million it was clear it would go through the usual studio machinations which usually take very good care of anything even remotely artistic or original.

The trailer didn't do much for me (not because of the song, although I hated it) but because it offers a look at how the studio doesn't know how to market it. Instead of focusing a little more on the mysterious aspects of the Creed and trying to raise audiences curiosity by building intrigue, most of the trailer consisted of very random action scenes the likes of which audiences have seen a hundredfold over the last years (and often in bad films). The film could still defy all odds and be excellent, but they need to cut a trailer which make the story appear more intriguing to non-gamers.

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During the E3 conference this summer, Assassin's Creed producer Frank Marshall said that they are very pleased with what Justin Kurzel is doing and that they think about him as a true visionary. I think it's a very good sign. It's pretty rare when studio and the director can talk on the same language, but I think this might be the case with Assassin's Creed. Because he also wants to make this movie an unbelievable ride as well as some descent story. And some directors just want to realise their artistic ideas without giving too much attention to the action. But the only directors which succeed in huge high-budget projects are the directors who can both please the studio and the producers with spectacular action and please themselves and the audience with the great story and great artictic side. And Kuzel really seems to be this kind of director. And he has Fassbender on his side, who is really one of the main moving powers of this project, he's one of the producers and his DMC Films is one of the production studios on this film.

There was an accident this spring, when writers (maybe by studio's hand) did re-write some of Cotillard's part in the movie. She was really worried about it, but she came to Justin Kurzel and said about it and said why she think that this part is wrong. And he did agree with her and went to the writers and made them erase this re-write and bring it back as it was before. So he HAS power over this project, and it really is HIS movie, not the studio's.

I think there are not too many things which the first trailer could show without spoiling too much about the actual film's plot. The second trailer will show slightly better, but many things, I think, will be the same as in the first one. And it consists from the action sequences for purpose. High-budget film's trailer must consist from this scenes to attract the general audience. Not many are trying to do this through, you know, the story or the acting. The story and the acting will be in the actual movie, they are not supposed to be in the trailer without the usual amount of small glimpses on them.

Nolan, I love you forever!

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That sounds very encouraging. Frank Marshall is one of the best producers when it comes to huge, high quality adventure/action films there ever was, so there's that. Clearly, the people involved are artists and not just hacks. But no matter how good the film they deliver is, I'm pretty sure the final say what edit will end up in theaters remains with Fox and Ubisoft (which doesn't mean they'll fûck it up, mind, but that's where the producers' and artists' leverage usually ends). I'm sure Duncon Jones filmed a masterpiece when he did 'Warcraft'. But it's what ends up on theater screens that matters.

As for the trailer, you are of course absolutely right that you have to show audiences action scenes and production values - especially in a trailer for a 200 million dollar production - but what I meant is that the action needs to be put in context, which is basically what the art of cutting a trailer is all about. It has to function as an intriguing mini-story (which the first half of this trailer does), but without giving away too much. If you look at the trailer for a comparable upcoming action/adventure film like 'Doctor Strange', you're able to tell what's going on because the action scenes fit into a certain narrative. That's where in my eyes the 'AC' trailer - apart form the first half - fails completely: it seems to be just a random compilation of action snippets which don't even look to be in chronological order.

But I'm sure you're right and the next trailer will do a better job at conveying what the film's actual story arc will be.

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Kurzel is editing the film with the editor, Christopher Tellefsen, who edited acclaimed films like Moneyball and Capote. Fassbender confirmed last week he will be involved in the edit as a producer. Fox isn't involved within the edit. That seems to Fassbender's production company, Ubisoft, New Regency, and Frank Marshall. Those are the people in vying power with the edit. Kurzel has been a director that seems to garner respect from the departments around him, and knows how to incorporate people's voices but retain full vision.

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That seems to Fassbender's production company, Ubisoft, New Regency, and Frank Marshall. Those are the people in vying power with the edit. Kurzel has been a director that seems to garner respect from the departments around him, and knows how to incorporate people's voices but retain full vision.

Wow: that actually does sound very promising! Still, do you have any info what will happen after the test screening process starts? Because it's usually after the director has turned in his preferred edit of the film and the test screenings start where the studio/game company executives get involved, and things really can go south.

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I'm not really sure if they will have test screenings. We know they tested 20 minutes already to the press.

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Well, in that case I really hope there won't be any - and if there are, that they only do them to fine-tune their marketing or ajdust technical things. Letting some random audiences decide (who could be more into Jersy Shore or Transformers XII for all you know) over what "works" in your film and what has to be changed is a terrible thing for a filmmaker.

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Yes, I tend to find test audiences pretty bad with some of their feedback. They aren't well informed on how a film works either

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In the new TotalFilm's article, Kurzel said that he's just "two to three weeks" away from locking picture, and that in the end of September he'll fly to LA to the show the complete film to the audience for the first time. So there will be a test screening.

http://i.imgur.com/ZA3Bkcn.jpg

Nolan, I love you forever!

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Could you link me to where it was that Marion said she had a problem with the script? It's interesting to hear this about Kurzel and her. I know she made a post after shooting some more scenes this past summer with her removing her makeup and she hashtagged the post "justinkurzelisagenius."

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She has written about this in Studio Ciné Live's self-observing article about 2015 year in her career. It was one very outspoken article.

You can read it on French here, on the scans from the actual journal in the section Tournage A Londres D' "Assassin's Creed":
http://marion-cotillard.org/media/displayimage.php?pid=97063&fullsize=1
http://marion-cotillard.org/media/displayimage.php?pid=97064&fullsize=1

In English:

During Mal de Pierres' shooting, my American agent asked me insistently to read the new version of the script for Assassin's Creed that I have to turn in stride. I did not know the video game, but I liked the reflection on violence that suggested the scenario I had read. Now with this new version, I discover that my character, and ricochet to the film, no longer correspond to what I loved. With this little lost, I shovel for which I wanted to make this film and went to director Justin Kurzel. And he fully agreed with my disagreements! On this kind of blockbuster, the director is usually not the only master on board, but Justin is the exception and producers understand that. He has a point of view. He is an artist engaged in what he does.


Nolan, I love you forever!

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Wow, that's really interesting to read. They really believe and respect him. Is there a translation for the rest of the excerpt she continues talking? I wonder when we will get another trailer.

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Well, the rest of it is mainly about her difficulties with physicality of the role and taking it so soon after finishing Mal de Pierres, and about her being unknown what the final result will be in terms of her character and performance on screen. But this is her normal condition about the movie which is not released yet, so it's perfectly fine.

"... And then, at the end of Mal de Pierres, my body loosed. I think therefore to renounce and nevertheless decide to go. My physical condition does not allow me to chain these shootings two days apart. We try, but the result was catastrophic! While production leaves me fifteen days to blow. Fifteen days which Justin, Michael Fassbender and I try to rework the script. This film remains a lunar experience. I have no idea of ​​the final result. I savor my happiness just to meet Justin in a totally different atmosphere from Macbeth. As Xavier Nolan [obviously, she meant Christopher], he needs life on his tray."


Nolan, I love you forever!

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I think it seemed to have worked out for her character come end of July where it looks she's happy ? When did she finish shooting Mal de Pierres?

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She finished Mal de Pierres in the middle of October, 2015, and then, in less than a month, started Assassin's Creed. 20 days she had since Mal de Pierres was wrapped to prepare for a huge blockbuster like AC. I think she was shooting her scenes during November and December of 2015 and then in July, 2016, both times in London. She'd shot all her scenes in Pinewood Studios, where Abstergo Foundation's set was built, on Ely Cathedral and on this another church.

Nolan, I love you forever!

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I wonder how much screen time she has. What do you think? Also, will they screen this movie for test audiences? I'm not sure if they'll test material like Assassin's Creed that delivers controversial twist on history

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I think her role in this will be similar to Dr. Vidic in Assassin's Creed games. Not just in the first game, because if so there won't be enough screen time for her character at all, but in all the games. I think she will have enough screen time in the movie and enough action even (Sophia has a stunt double listed in the credits).

About the test screening, of course they will be. Even for one of the most sectetive blockbusters of our time like The Dark Knight Rises or Star Wars: The Force Awakens there were a test screenings. They need to at least test the movie from a technical side on the real living people. In the original cut of The Dark Knight Rises Bane's voice was barely recievable for the audience, so they complained about it and Nolan did re-recordings of Tom Hardy's voice. So yeah, there will be test screenings, but a very, very, very secretive ones. And, of course, no one will know the secrets of the film's plot from them, because all members of the test audience is forced to sign a nondisclosure agreement.

Nolan, I love you forever!

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I think she has an expanded role but her character motivations I don't think align with Vidic'a, at least she's more tame with hers in that she wants find the cure for violence.

Test audiences I tend to find ridiculous because a lot of times their feedback can negatively affect the quality of the film or reduce its message in some capacity.

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Yes, I think her motivation will be far more complex. Vidic was great, but his motivation was, at the very least, not quite obvious.

Yes, but their feedback only have a very limited power. The edit will be made only if the studio, producers and the director are agreed with it.

Nolan, I love you forever!

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When would they even test the movie? Not enough for any big changes I don't think. Plus, Fassbender is on the edit

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The movie will be finished this month. I have a contact with one of localization team's members in my country and he told me that they will start work on translation and dubbing in September. So, test screenings in October, probably, if any. I think there won't be any edit caused by this test screening(s) because the audience will be quite pleased with what they will see.

Nolan, I love you forever!

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That's reaffirming. They'll probably work on the sound mixing and effects up until close to release. They've actually been in post production for a significant amount of time now, dating back to January. Do you have any information close to you suggesting that screenings, if any, will go well?

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No, of course not. Even people close to the production can't look directly into the future and predict people's opinion about their product, otherwise there wouldn't be bad movies out there. That is simply my suggestion about the quality of the film which will please the audience.

Nolan, I love you forever!

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It could depend on how many test audiences they pull from get a base where they could find a general response. I'm confident it will be a work of art, consider the talent behind it and how even the actors are only involved because of the quality they find in the project. I hope to hear more from Gleeson and Irons too. Maybe we get a trailer next week too

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Yes, I totally agree! I don't think there will be many test audiences, only a few or even one, because practically they only need to test the film's technical side to be appropriate to the audience.

Nolan, I love you forever!

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I'm confident it will be a work of art, consider the talent behind it and how even the actors are only involved because of the quality they find in the project. I hope to hear more from Gleeson and Irons too. Maybe we get a trailer next week too
I sincerly wish I were as confident as you are. Let's wait and see and hope for the best.

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In the new TotalFilm's article, Kurzel said that he's just "two to three weeks" away from locking picture, and that in the end of September he'll fly to LA to the show the complete film to the audience for the first time. So there will be a test screening.

http://i.imgur.com/ZA3Bkcn.jpg

Nolan, I love you forever!

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I think it's a little strange that the AC release date was pushed in several countries, but not in all countries. It would have been much smarter to open worldwide in january. If they would have done this they would have avoided both Rogue One and Passengers.

I think both AC and Passengers will lose against Star Wars. It could have been so easily avoided. I think they will end up regretting not pushing the release date worldwide. Only time will tell.

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I think both AC and Passengers will lose against Star Wars. It could have been so easily avoided. I think they will end up regretting not pushing the release date worldwide. Only time will tell.

I agree very much. Even if the films don't bomb there's no way they can realise their full box office potential in the US with that kind of competition.

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Exactly.

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And that both AC and Passengers are going after the same exact audience as Rogue One just makes the decision to open directly against if even more incomprehensible.

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Indeed.

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And I see you have the delusional fanboys taking over this IMDB page...not surprising.
I love the whole 'WOW! THIS SHOT LOOKS LIKE IT WAS TAKEN FROM THE GAME:THAT MEANS THIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE HIT" mentality.

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[deleted]

There are a lot of people on this board who live in a delusional fantasy world.

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Hmm... Now with 'Rogue One' getting solid reviews and 'Passengers' as well as (probably) 'Assassin's Creed' getting battered by critics, I'm afraid both films are doomed (at least at the domestic box office).

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Both Passengers and Creed are dead. Passengers may have a slight chance at success due to Star Power. Creed is another dead video game adaptation walking.

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Box Office Weekend.

1. Rogue One - 77 Million

2. Sing - 63 Million

3. Passengers- 55 Million

4. Assassins Creed - 28 Million

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