MovieChat Forums > Focus (2015) Discussion > Gamblers explain double or nothing plz

Gamblers explain double or nothing plz


Correct me if I´m wrong, but Will Smith was losing and playing for double or nothing, which means the guy winning will win double of what he already won, or the guy losing will lose nothing. Seems like they put a lot of effort shaping the mind of that asian guy, and it was all to impress the blonde?

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People use double or nothing to recoup their losses faster. It's a super risky move, but it's very rewarding.

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Actually, if you listen to what Will says when he proposes the last bet he never says "double or nothing", he says "double it". Which means he wanted to make another bet for double the amount of the last bet, which was 1.1 million. So the final bet was for 2.2 million and Will won the bet. That means Will walked away with 2.2 million which was twice as much as he had when they arrived at the Super Bowl.

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Appologies if this is not what you wanted to know. I got a bit distracted during the movie, but I like probability, particularly when related to gambling so your post appealed to me.

A common betting strategy. First, try to find a genuinely 50/50 outcome, or ideally more so in your favour. So, say heads or tails.

I bet $10 on heads
- Outcome heads, I win $20, a $10 profit, and walk away. Outcome tails, I lose $10, I double up with a $20 wager
- Outcome heads, I win $40, a $10 profit, and walk away. Outcome tails, I lose $20 and a total now of $30. I double up with a $40 wager... Etc... Etc.... Until I win my $10 profit

If you lose 4 times, you are $150 in the red and your next bet would need to be $160 to, if successful, walk away with your $10 dollar profit. Gets very ugly, very quickly.

So, this betting strategy requires you to identify a genuinely 50/50 outcome, have a big bank roll and find someone or some situation that will allow you to keep doubling up till you win.

This is why casinos have a low bet minimum and a high bet maximum on an, against the house table. You can't just keep doubling up until you win. You can of course go to a higher stakes table but it catches up with you anyway. Also, no casino game gives you a genuine 50/50 outcome. So become a great Texas Holdem player, play the player not the house and learn how to notice when you are out matched. (Wish I was good at that)

Remember, in a perfect world (which casinos don't give you) you still can't defeat probability over a long enough period of time. You need to find a favourable probability of winning vs payoff relationship. (Wish I was good at that too)

In a casino, blackjack is the only game against the house where that is possible. But you need to learn to count the cards, and if you are successful your betting strategy will give you away, and as I understand it, you will be politely asked to leave.

The only casino strategy that can win, is to pool all the money you can get, bet it on the closest thing to a 50/50 you can find and then if you are lucky, walk away as a winner and never bet again...... But where's the fun in that?

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The only casino strategy that can win is to be the casino. Everything else loses eventually.

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