MovieChat Forums > Black Widow (2021) Discussion > How to Calculate Box Office

How to Calculate Box Office

posted 3 years ago by FilmBuff (6736)
11 replies | jump to latest

For better or worse, we live in a world where many films are available for streaming at home at the same time they debut in theaters. In the case of Marvel's Black Widow, that meant a $30 fee to watch at home that isn't tallied into the traditional box office numbers. It also means we have no clear picture of how much the film is earning from its initial run. Disney revealed that they made $60 million from streaming during the first three days it was available, but they haven't given any indication how much it has made in the subsequent 23 days. All we know is that in total it has earned more than $405 million.

Hopefully Disney will release figures at some point, and perhaps Box Office Mojo, and similar sites, will include that revenue so we can maintain a fair comparison between films of the past and present.

[–] ShogunofYonkers (72537) 3 years ago

I just had this conversation with someone today, I think we will never know but I thought it would have earned $700 million easily if released under normal circumstances

It was a fun, exciting movie with terrific effects and some good actors

[–] thenewnexus (1906) 3 years ago

Movies need to make like 3x times the budget and marketing. I m sure the delays added to the cost. This would be a bomb realistically, but BW has been dead, its not like a triogly planned so this loss might not be a loss

[–] FilmBuff (6736) 3 years ago

Three times the budget is a lot more than is required, especially for films that were costlier to make. After all, the cost of promoting a film is not tied into what it cost to make it. I can get the same level of promotion for $1 million whether I'm promoting a film I made for $100 or one that cost me $500 million to make.

A reasonable estimate to promote a film is $35 million. Black Widow was not heavily promoted, but even if we assume Disney spent double the average, then the break-even point is $270 million ($200 million to make it, $70 million to promote it). It has probably made at least $450 million to this point-- $406 million we know about, and probably another $50-60 million from streaming, plus whatever it will make when it plays in China-- and Disney's share of that is more than the $270 million spent. Factor in what it will earn in the future, and I think the Mouse has yet another hit on his paws.

[–] thenewnexus (1906) 2 years ago

Yeah they claimed to have loss 600 million

[–] FilmBuff (6736) 2 years ago

Who claimed to have lost 600 million on what?

[–] thenewnexus (1906) 2 years ago

Disney from black widow

[–] FilmBuff (6736) 2 years ago

That seems inconceivable. Where did you read that?

The film brought in $380 million at the box office, about $230 million or so of which ends up in Disney's coffers. Disney revealed they made $125 million from streaming the film, all of which is profit, so there's $355 million.

The production cost for the film was rumored to be as much as $200 million, though that number is typically exaggerated.

Marketing costs are never truly known, but they can range from $30 million upwards. Disney claimed to have spent $200 million to market Endgame, though one assumes that is exaggerated for promotional, and tax write-off, reasons. Even if they spent half as much on Black Widow, which seems highly unlikely, that's still only $300 million in costs. To have lost $600 million, they would have needed to have spent an additional $655 million somewhere. I doubt very much Disney spent almost $1 billion to make and market a film featuring a D-List hero like Black Widow.

Keep in mind they are, or were, in a lawsuit with Scarlett Johansson, who wanted more money, so it was in Disney's best interests to make it seem they took a bath on a film that likely made them a small profit.

[–] darkpast (8127) 3 years ago

i think $20 or $15 would been better for Disney at $30 people will pirate for free

[–] 123 (543) 3 years ago

Yes it would be, but some people will queue all night and day just to say they have one of the first new iphone/galaxy or playstation/xbox or another new gadget when they could literally go next day into a shop without a queue and get it in a few minutes, people buy the latest tv's, cars and other things at extortionate prices, just so they can be one the first to have it.

Those with Disney just have to wait a month and its free with there regular subscription, but that won't be the same as paying $30 to get it the same night its released.

Crazy or what.

Disney can only charge as much as the desperate ones are willing to pay, if no one paid $30 then the price would start to fall.

[–] FilmBuff (6736) 3 years ago

I don't think that is true. If 2 million people paid $30 over the first three days, the price clearly isn't too high. It depends where you live, but here in Austin it's 14.75 per ticket, and if I buy tickets online it comes to 35.72 after all the fees and taxes. $30 seems like a bargain price even if it's only two people watching.

As for pirating, I think only a small percentage of especially shitty people pirate films, and a company should not factor that into their price. You will always have thieves, but you don't reduce the price in an attempt to encourage a thief to pay for the product rather than steal it.

[–] thenewnexus (1906) 3 years ago

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