Those could have been notches for something less sinister, like # of deer hunted, but the way the movie portrays it makes it look like he is a serial killer who has killed 20 or so people.
Given that, its pretty much guaranteed that he doesnt personally know her. If he did know her, he must have known the other 20 or so people that hes killed, and there is no way that someone could get away with killing 20 acquaintances around them without the cops figuring out the connection.
I just went back to check, and there are thirteen tallies on the crossbow. Interestingly, there are two tallies on their own on the right side, then two groups of five, then one tally. It's odd that there are "extra" tallies on both sides. It makes me wonder if either the one alone or the two alone signify that those kills were different (maybe his first two, or two people he knew?).
But, yes, it seems totally unreasonable to think he knows her. She shows no sign of recognizing him, he doesn't seem to know that she is deaf or that she can read lips, and it seems clear that his original target was the neighbor.
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