no way jason robards could have survived the initial impact - The Day After (1983) Discussion

[–] CGSailor 8 years ago

By being at a sufficient distance that he was not killed outright.
Really. It's not that hard to figure out.

Most people (yourself included apparently) have this overdeveloped sense of size and scale when it comes to nuclear weapons, thanks to Hollywood and a lack of any factual research into weapon effects. In other words, people tend to overestimate the size of the blasts and how far away they will destroy things.

Granted, they are the largest, most destructive thing that humans have developed.
But the average person thinks them even more powerful and destructive than they really are.

There are three primary effects of a nuclear detonation. Radiation, Thermal, and Blast.

You can discount radiation. We're not talking fallout here, that's a secondary effect. We're talking the initial radiation pulse of the detonation. The range at which the radiation pulse is lethal is far outstripped by the blast and heat. To be close enough for the radiation to kill you... you'd already be killed anyways by the blast and heat.

Thermal radiation(Heat) will most likely kill you out to a radius of just over 5-6 miles, after that it tapers off pretty rapidly, as the heat pulse is rapidly absorbed by the moisture in the atmosphere as well as the Inverse Square Law. (Double the distance and you quarter the effect), And even then, the heat effect is only going to be for those exposed directly to the line of sight to the bomb detonation. He ducked down in the seat of his car just as the bomb detonated, at most he's going to have a real bad sunburn on the exposed portion of his face.

Blast really depends on your position and what's around you. at 20 miles, the blast is barely strong enough to break exposed plate glass windows. He was on the outskirts of a Major metropolitan area and the detonations was over the City Center. he was about 8-12 miles from ground zero. There is a lot of variables to factor, but yes... it IS easily possible he could have survived the initial blast.

I joined the Navy to see the world, only to discover the world is 2/3 water!

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[–] swaiminatrix 8 years ago

I'm not trying to be an accuracy nazi, but didn't Robards claim to be 30 miles from the city center? I'm curious about the yield of the blast...would KC have been leveled by highly kiloton/low megaton warheads or a 20 megaton city buster from, say an SS18? I know warhead yield and deployment evolved as accuracy did. How was it in the early 1980's?

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[–] CGSailor 8 years ago

Given that it was set in the 80's, the Soviet weapons deployed on Metropolitan areas were likely High Kiloton weapons rather than megaton sized devices.
the larger Megaton devices would have been reserved for hardened targets and important military sites.

The CEP of soviet ICBMs were not as good as ours and thus they relied on much larger devices to insure destruction of hardened targets.

A City being a much larger target to hit as well as a much softer target to destroy, were ideal targets for the lower yield weapons.

A Hardened missile silo on the other hand would require a much larger yield nuke to insure destruction with a less accurate delivery vehicle where a few hundred meters error would be a miss even by nuclear standards.

Even if the blast was a 1 megaton nuke, and he was 30 miles away... a 1 Mt nuke would barely break windows at 20 miles.

I joined the Navy to see the world, only to discover the world is 2/3 water!

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[–] herschie 8 years ago

I'm not trying to be an accuracy nazi, but didn't Robards claim to be 30 miles from the city center? I'm curious about the yield of the blast...would KC have been leveled by highly kiloton/low megaton warheads or a 20 megaton city buster from, say an SS18? I know warhead yield and deployment evolved as accuracy did. How was it in the early 1980's?

Using Google Maps, if he was 30 miles from city center on I70, that would put him about seven miles from the University hospital. Google Maps said that that would take approximately 38 minutes to walk. So assuming that he was smart and started walking right away, he might have even been able to survive the fallout. Of course, we know that he doesn't.

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[–] Stevicus-2 8 years ago

that would put him about seven miles from the University hospital. Google Maps said that that would take approximately 38 minutes to walk.

Walk 7 miles in 38 minutes? That doesn't seem right, not walking. Running perhaps, at a rate of 5.4 minutes per mile.

He'd probably have to stop and rest for a few minutes along the way.

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[–] CGSailor 8 years ago

And there should nit have been any localized fallout where he was nor at the University. Prevailing winds there is from the WNW. All the imoacts took place just east of him in KC and all ther other targets were East and south. (Whiteman and the Minutman III Densepack)

Lawrence would be virtually untouched until many hours later as global, not local fallout from sites further west in Colorado reached them.

I joined the Navy to see the world, only to discover the world is 2/3 water!

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[–] herschie 8 years ago

I was wrong it would have taken him about two hours to walk. I don't know where I got 38 minutes from. But CG Sailor was correct, where did all that fallout come from? Maybe Topeka, which could have arrived in about an hour. That means that he would have had an hour's worth of fallout. It's conceivable that he could have been killed, considering that the hospital would have been somewhat radioactive as well.

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[–] CGSailor 8 years ago

Fallout isn't going to magically kill you or give you radiation poisoning in and of itself.

Fallout is primarily Alpha and Beta prticale emitters. Just being out in it isnt going to kill you.

Breathing the dust particles in can eventually kill you, wear a mask.
Eating or drinking food and water contaminated with the particles can eventually kill you. He can avoid eating and drinking that long.

Just be sure to shower and change clothes before entering an uncontaminated shelter

Theres nothing magical about how fallout works. yet its the boogieman of Hollywood films on nuclear war.

The most modest of simple precautions can eliminate 90% of the danger from fallout contamination from being out in it for short oeriods of time.

The real danger is from the contamination of food and water sources over time. Not simply being exposed to it.

I joined the Navy to see the world, only to discover the world is 2/3 water!

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[–] CGSailor 8 years ago

To expand a bit more on what I posted, now that I have a little more time...

Fallout is Ash. Residue from the bomb itself bonded to debris sucked up into the mushroom cloud.
This Ash is radioactive, but as Alpha and Beta partical emmitters, not as Gamma ray sources.

Gamma rays can penetrate many feet of solid concrete. They're deadly and will pass right through a human. But that's not fallout.

Alpha and Beta radiation on the other hand are not high energy electomagnetic radiation as Gamma Rays are. They are actual subatomic paticles. They are capable of being stopped by clothes, even a sheet of paper is thick enough to stop. They cannot even penetrate your skin.

To be dangerous, you have to have this stuff be taken internal to your body. You have to breathe, eat, or drink the stuff.

It's not going to irradiate you by simple exposure. Its the ash contamination of the environment you have to worry about, not just exposure to it. Your own skin is enough to protect you.

You have to breathe in the ash. A wet cloth worn over the face and proper precautions can prevent that. You don't need a gas mask. Fallout isn't a gas, it is particulate ash. A surgical mask, any sort of mask should help. The finer the particulate the better. One designed to protect against germ sized matter is better. One designed simply for sawdust... not so much.

Getting the ash in your hair, on your clothes and skin isn't going to kill you.

But before you go from a contaminated area like outside, into an uncontaminated area like inside a shelter, you must get rid of the ash by showering, and changing clothes, scrubbing down good.

It isn't because exposure is deadly. It's because you don't want to track it inside where others might breath it in, where it might contaminate food/water and get consumed where it then CAN kill you.

AGAIN.... You have to Eat/Drink/Breathe the stuff for it to be a danger.

A fallout contaminated environment is deadly because walking around in it kicks up the dust which can be breathed in. and any food/water would be dangerous to eat/drink.

Simple precautions like wearing a breathing mask, and taking intelligent actions to prevent contamination of safe areas, eating only canned goods from the exposed environment (taking precautions to clean the outside of the can and prevent contamination on opening)...

will mitigate the danger of fallout.

I joined the Navy to see the world, only to discover the world is 2/3 water!

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[–] znapper 8 years ago

For alpha and beta-rays, this is correct.

beta-rays can burn your skin and give you something called beta-burns, but it will not kill you.

But there will also be gamma-radiation present in fallout, as well from neutron activation.
If "salted" bombs are used, there will be plenty of gamma-radiation to go around. (especially if cobalt has been used).

In a scenario like TDA, the radiation will cause many deaths, mostly from indigestion, but indeed also from direct exposure to gamma-rays.

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[–] davidm-14 8 years ago

it always bugged the hell out of me that he was driving on the freeway, surrounded by other vehicles, and suddenly, he was alone with barely any other vehicles and no one else around afterwards. where did all the other cards and people go??

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[–] ajay05 8 years ago

That was a little strange but everyone would have been heading out of KC and not into so one wonders if him being stuck in gridlock was more dramatic licence than being correct

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[–] TAB2440 (76) 2 years ago

He turned around either to find another route as the freeway was clogged or, maybe to head home where his own wife and son were. I'm guessing he'd rather be with them and die together then being separated. If he had made it home, he would have died because you see the wreckage of his former house and neighbour -- nothing but rubble Wasn't Helen Oaks the hanging corpse that maybe a scavenger was trying to to pull the ring off of? I don't think she was vaporised but definitely killed by the collapsing house and other flying and falling structures e.g. crushed mangled, etc.

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[–] millsey72 (9758) 2 years ago

He was a leading doctor at a major hospital. Its safe to assume his immune system was stronger than the average person

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[–] kwestmo (4283) 2 years ago

Plus the star can't die early in the film.

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[–] millsey72 (9758) 2 years ago

Yea, Jason Robards was too big an actor to accept a role where he dies midway thru it

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