In pre-production; Season 4 still in limbo
Movie is a sure bet. Season 4 was written in 2022 (equal to 2 movies)
https://screenrant.com/star-wars-the-mandalorian-season-4-dave-filoni-cryptic-update/
The fate of The Mandalorian season 4 has been unknown ever since Star Wars' recent movie announcement, but Lucasfilm executive Dave Filoni has finally addressed it.
Dave Filoni remains cryptic about The Mandalorian season 4, but his refusal to commit to one thing proves the fate of the TV show hasn't yet been sealed.
It's very likely Star Wars could still create The Mandalorian season 4, whether it arrives before or after the upcoming The Mandalorian & Grogu movie.