Right now almost all investors know Active Investing will lose money, which is why most funds in the USA are Passive Investing. You might ask: if active investing doesn't work, why do thousands of people work in active investing with billions in their accounts?
There are so many things wrong in what you are saying, it is ridiculous. I almost lost interests in continuing this conversation, because this is actually my area of expertise.
First of all, do you know someone called Warren Buffett? I am an active investor, nothing compare to Mr Buffett but I retired more than 10 years ago at the age of 41, through my own active investing in share market.
And majority of people don't know anything about stock market investing, don't even know what the stock indexes are. Those who do know about financial markets know active investing does work, but not everyone can make it, at least some have to lose, otherwise where are the winnings coming from?
Collectively active managers won't beat index funds, because someone has to lose money for someone else to gain it, so collectively active managers perform about the same as index funds, just less more fees.
Mr Buffett advised people to invest in index funds, I think that is one of the reasons why so many invested in them, and I think because it is as difficult to pick a decent active fund manager as to pick winning stocks.
That is why I rather invest my own money.
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sonans (1429)
8 days ago
You said I'd be wrong, but you didn't point out what was wrong. My main point was: that active investing (almost) doesn't work, yet people still pour money into active investing. John Bogle is the godfather of passive investing, he spent his entire life advocating passive investing and criticizing active investing, yet his son managed an active investing fund, and... John Bogle invested in his son's fund.
The similarity was that active investing and campaigning money almost always doesn't work, yet people still keep doing it, even John Bogle. It's like gambling. Do you think people who didn't know gambling in casinos almost always lost money? Even a child knows you will lose money, yet casinos earn billions in profit. You might ask: if gambling will lose money, why do people spend billions on gambling?
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fc31 (5028)
8 days ago
So you are saying Warren Buffett is a fraud?
At this stage I no longer think this is an intelligent conversation.
I don't know whether you are pretending or you are really that easily fooled by so obviously false narratives.
Then again, I no longer have any interest in this discussion.
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sonans (1429)
8 days ago
I said "almost always," but I didn't say "always," I even use gambling as an example: everyone knows some people will win money (like Buffett), but almost always people will lose money, yet people still pour billions into something they know doesn't work.
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fc31 (5028)
8 days ago
There are people fail because they are just untalented.
But there are people fail because they are looking for excuses not to try. They say trying "almost always" ends up in failure.
That is really a pity.
Then again, it is not my problem.
I actually appreciate and encourage such behaviour in others. We can't all be successful.
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sonans (1429)
8 days ago
I just think of another example to show you how people keep doing something they know doesn't work: voting.
Everyone knows one vote almost always wouldn't change the outcome of elections, yet millions of people still keep voting, it's a dilemma in academics, they wrote papers trying to understand why people go to vote?
The vote for president is coming, you can ask your friends who will go to vote: "Do you believe your vote can change the outcome?" I believe everyone will reply to you with the same answer: "No, I don't think my vote can change anything."
Voting, campaign money, investing, gambling, praying to god... the human nature is: even if they know it doesn't work, they still keep doing it.
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fc31 (5028)
8 days ago
A lot of people believe what the media have been telling them, a lot of people with mainly implanted thoughts. That started as soon as they can speak and read, it is very hard not to be affected.
But for smart people they usually going through de-programming once entering college. Then again the majority still won't be able to break free from the programming by the media, at least not completely.
Like there are people believe money has nothing to do with elections, yet billions were spent on them. Are they that blind and stupid? You tell me.
Do you really think people running the world are the ones actually stupid? Or the more intuitive and straightforward answer is that you are.
Anyway, if you insist you are right, so be it.
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sonans (1429)
8 days ago
Like there are people believe money has nothing to do with elections, yet billions were spent on them. Are they that blind and stupid? You tell me.
I just list many examples for you to show even if something doesn't work, people still keep doing it. But for campaign money, I think there is another reason why people keep donating: to affect donees' policy. The donors know money can't change the outcome of elections, but they know donating money can change the policy, a politician who receives money has to "repay" the money in their policy to benefit the donors.
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